Fourth Republic — Obasanjo · Yar'Adua · Jonathan (1999–2015) — Lagos State

15 Oct 1999 — Mile 12 / Ketu Hausa–Yoruba clashes. OPC-Hausa traders riot at Mile 12 cattle market; ≥60 dead over 72 hours; first major Lagos communal violence of the Fourth Republic.Grievance-to-Insurgency Pipeline
6 Feb 2000 — Idi-Araba / Mushin clashes (Yoruba–Hausa). ≥100 dead; the Tinubu administration proscribes the Mushin OPC chapter; National Mobile Force deployment for two weeks.Grievance-to-Insurgency Pipeline
27 Jan 2002 — Ikeja Cantonment Explosions. A fire at the 4 Battery Artillery armoury detonates the Cantonment magazine; the blast wave drives an estimated >1,000 people, mostly children, into the Oke-Afa canal where they drown. Official toll 1,100; CDHR/CLO independent counts 2,000+. The Justice Niki Tobi Commission's report is shelved; no compensation paid as of 2024. *Pattern: state negligence, mass casualty.*
7–14 Jan 2012 — Occupy Nigeria / Fuel-Subsidy Protests (Gani Fawehinmi Park). Jonathan's 1 Jan removal of the petrol subsidy (₦65→₦141) brings 1.5m onto Lagos streets; Ojota's Gani Fawehinmi Freedom Park becomes the national epicentre, with Femi Kuti, Tunde Bakare and Pastor Tunde Bakare's "Save Nigeria Group" coordinating. 16 confirmed dead nationally (1 in Lagos — Ademola Aderinto, shot at Ogba 9 Jan). Subsidy partially restored to ₦97 on 16 Jan.Economic Shock Cycle