What keeps it alive
Mali's repeated coups (2020, 2021) and invitation of Wagner Group forces created tension with ECOWAS (Nigeria). Mali is now in the Alliance des États du Sahel with Burkina Faso and Niger — explicitly positioning against ECOWAS.
Active drivers
SECURITY · DIPLOMATIC
Anchors
ECOWAS (strained) · Shared Sahel security interests (contested)
Accountability
Mali's embrace of Wagner Group — which has been documented committing atrocities across the Sahel — directly threatens Nigerian security through the NE/NW corridor. Nigeria's ECOWAS response has been politically constrained.
Key moments
- 2012Tuareg/Islamist coup. ECOWAS imposed sanctions.
- 2021Second coup. Wagner Group invited in.
- 2023Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger formed Alliance des États du Sahel — explicitly anti-ECOWAS.
Remittance corridor
Inflow: Minimal
Cost: 9–12%
Cash; mobile money (Orange)