What keeps it alive
Burkina Faso's security deterioration — it is now the country with the most terrorism deaths globally — directly affects Nigeria's northwestern flank. The country's pivot away from ECOWAS and toward Wagner Group is the most significant Sahel security development affecting Nigeria.
Active drivers
SECURITY · DIPLOMATIC
Anchors
Shared Boko Haram/JNIM security concerns · ECOWAS (strained)
Accountability
Burkina Faso's security collapse represents a failure of ECOWAS early warning systems. Nigeria and ECOWAS have no effective mechanism to address state collapse among members.
Key moments
- 2022Two military coups. Captain Ibrahim Traoré's junta expelled French forces, invited Wagner Group.
- 2023Joined Alliance des États du Sahel with Mali and Niger.
Remittance corridor
Inflow: Negligible
Cost: 10–13%
Cash and mobile