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Industryevent2000 — 2026· Chapter

Cement, Cartel and Dangote — Why a Bag Costs ₦11,000

From the 1974 Cement Armada through the 2000s 'Backward Integration Policy' to Dangote Cement's 60+ percent market share, Nigerian cement has consistently sold for two to three times the West African average. This is the most documented price-cartel story in modern Nigerian industry.

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Nigeria has the largest single cement plant in sub-Saharan Africa — Dangote Cement Obajana, 16.25 million tonnes a year — and one of the highest cement prices on the continent. The conventional explanation (energy, logistics, naira weakness) accounts for at most a quarter of the gap. The rest is what Feyi Fawehinmi has called F.O.O.D — Favoured Operators Operating Domestically — an industrial-policy model that builds protected national champions and then lets them set the price.

## The Obasanjo turn (2002): a category error

The modern Nigerian cement story begins not with a manufacturer but with a trader. Obasanjo, troubled by Nigeria's $2 billion-a-year cement import bill, called in Aliko Dangote — at that point an importer, not a producer — and asked what would make domestic manufacturing attractive. Dangote answered, plainly, that imports were more profitable than manufacturing and that the government would have to tilt the playing field. The 2002 Backward Integration Policy did exactly that: cement imports were banned for any company without local production.

As Fawehinmi puts it in The King of F.O.O.D (Oct 2025), Obasanjo committed a category error. He sought a cement manufacturer and conflated this with a cement trader, "and so turned to Dangote." A trader's "singular preoccupation is with margins: he may possess scant understanding of how the product he handles is actually made, but excels at purchasing low and selling high." Twenty years later the country has acquired no mastery of cement technology — the kilns, the precalciners, the bag-filter systems are all bought from China — and Dangote "merely purchases the technology from China at low cost and sells it to Nigerians at a markup."

## Defensive capacity

By the companies' own published figures, Dangote runs 35.25 million tonnes per annum of installed capacity in Nigeria; BUA runs 17 mtpa; Lafarge runs 10.5 mtpa. Add CCNN and the smaller players and the country has roughly 63 mtpa of cement plant on the ground. Domestic consumption in 2025 was just over 28 million tonnes. The producers therefore run plants at about 45% utilisation by design — and keep adding capacity they have no intention of using. Fawehinmi calls this defensive capacity: excess plant exists to deter any new entrant, not to lower prices.

In the nine months to September 2025 Dangote Cement sold a virtually identical volume of cement in Nigeria as in the same period of 2024. Revenues rose by more than 42 percent. EBITDA surged by 85 percent. Manufacturing costs rose by 4 percent. There is only one explanation for selling the same product for far more money with almost no cost increase: pricing power. The Economist had already noted in 2014 that "Dangote's margins in Nigeria are 63%, compared with the 30–40% margins typical in other frontier markets."

## Cross-country pricing

The price evidence is brutal. A 50 kg bag of cement in 2024 retailed at ₦7,500–₦9,000 in Lagos and ₦11,000+ in the South-East and far North. The identical bag retailed at the equivalent of $5 in Lome, $4.50 in Accra, $4 in Douala — all imported from the same regional producers, all paying ocean freight that Lagos does not pay. Tinubu summoned the producers to the Villa in February 2024; the resulting "voluntary" price cap of ₦7,000 lasted six weeks before quietly disappearing.

## Why exports do not happen

Dangote Cement built plants across Africa — Tanzania, Ethiopia, Senegal, Cameroon, Congo, Zambia — but conducted virtually no cement exports out of Nigeria. The economic logic is direct: why sell a bag of cement cheaply overseas when you can command far higher prices at home behind the import ban? The same calculus is now being replayed with the Dangote Refinery and petrol. See The Reversal File · Act VII — Buhari's Border & FX Closures and Why Nigeria Has No Power.

## The 2026 tariff review

The April 2026 Fiscal Policy Measures, which trimmed protection across sugar, palm oil, and several other F.O.O.D sectors, left cement entirely alone. Bulk and clinker lines stayed at 50%; bagged cement remained on the import prohibition list where it has sat for two decades. Fawehinmi's note in Some F.O.O.D For Thought is dry: "Elections are coming. The big daddies were left alone. Are these two things related? I don't know, you tell me."

The rent extracted from Nigerian construction by structurally elevated cement prices is the single largest transfer in Nigerian industrial economics that nobody quite admits to. See also Companies that pay shareholders more than workers and The King of F.O.O.D.

Era context

The political and economic reality

The government(s), economy and national reality across the period 2000–2026.

President · Fourth Republic

Chief Olusegun Obasanjo

1999–2007· PDP

National reality

Return to civilian rule, 29 May 1999. Telecoms deregulation (2001) — GSM revolution. Paris Club exit, October 2005 ($30 bn debt relief, Okonjo-Iweala). Pension Reform 2004. EFCC established 2003.

Crises of the period

  • Third Term agenda defeated 2006
  • Niger Delta militancy intensifies
  • ASUU strikes; Sharia introduction in 12 northern states

GDP (World Bank)

$59 bn (1999) → $166 bn (2007)

Cabinet (selected portfolios)

  • Finance

    Adamu Ciroma (1999–2003); Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (2003–06)

  • Education

    Tunde Adeniran; Babalola Borishade; Fabian Osuji; Chinwe Obaji; Oby Ezekwesili

  • Health

    Prof. ABC Nwosu

Sources · Federal Gazette 1999–2007 · CBN · World Bank WDI

President · Fourth Republic

Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar'Adua

2007–2010· PDP

National reality

Niger Delta amnesty programme (2009). Yar'Adua became gravely ill in late 2009; the Doctrine of Necessity (Feb 2010) made Goodluck Jonathan Acting President. Yar'Adua died 5 May 2010.

Crises of the period

  • Yar'Adua medical absence + cabal
  • Niger Delta amnesty negotiations
  • Boko Haram founding violence (Maiduguri 2009)

GDP (World Bank)

$166 bn (2007) → $369 bn (2010, post-rebasing trajectory)

Cabinet (selected portfolios)

  • Education

    Igwe Aja-Nwachuku; Dr. Sam Egwu

Source · Federal Gazette 2007–10

President · Fourth Republic

Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan

2010–2015· PDP

National reality

GDP rebasing April 2014 made Nigeria Africa's largest economy. Chibok abduction 14 April 2014 (276 girls). Sovereign Wealth Fund established 2012. Fuel-subsidy protests January 2012. Lost the 2015 election — first incumbent defeated.

Crises of the period

  • #OccupyNigeria fuel-subsidy protests (Jan 2012)
  • Chibok abduction (Apr 2014)
  • Boko Haram caliphate at peak (2014)
  • Oil price crash from mid-2014

GDP (World Bank)

$369 bn (2010) → $546 bn (2014, post-rebasing — largest African economy)

Cabinet (selected portfolios)

  • Finance

    Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (Coordinating Minister of the Economy)

  • Education

    Ruqayyatu Ahmed Rufa'i; Ibrahim Shekarau

  • Petroleum

    Diezani Alison-Madueke

Sources · Federal Gazette 2010–15 · NBS GDP rebasing report 2014

President · Fourth Republic

Muhammadu Buhari

2015–2023· APC

National reality

Two recessions (2016, 2020). Multiple naira devaluations. ASUU strike of 2022 closed federal universities for ~9 months. End SARS protests (Oct 2020); Lekki Toll Gate incident. Out-of-school children >18 million by 2022.

Crises of the period

  • 2016 recession + FX crisis
  • End SARS + Lekki Toll Gate (Oct 2020)
  • COVID-19 lockdown (2020)
  • 9-month ASUU strike (2022)
  • Naira redesign chaos (Q1 2023)

GDP (World Bank)

$494 bn (2015) → $477 bn (2022)

Cabinet (selected portfolios)

  • Finance

    Kemi Adeosun (2015–18); Zainab Ahmed (2018–23)

  • Justice (AGF)

    Abubakar Malami (SAN)

  • Education

    Mallam Adamu Adamu (2015–23)

  • Petroleum

    Muhammadu Buhari (concurrent); Min. of State Ibe Kachikwu then Timipre Sylva

Sources · Federal Gazette 2015–23 · CBN · NBS

President · Fourth Republic

Sen. Bola Ahmed Tinubu

2023–present· APC

National reality

Fuel subsidy removed at inauguration (29 May 2023); naira floated June 2023. Inflation at multi-decade highs (>30% YoY in 2024). Student loan scheme (NELFUND) launched 2024. WAEC torchlight exam controversy (2025).

Crises of the period

  • Cost-of-living crisis 2023–25
  • WAEC torchlight examinations (2025)
  • JAMB CBT technical failures (2025)
  • Naira free-fall 2023–24

GDP (World Bank)

≈ $363 bn (2023, post-float)

Cabinet (selected portfolios)

  • Finance

    Wale Edun (Coordinating Minister of the Economy)

  • Justice (AGF)

    Lateef Fagbemi (SAN)

  • Education

    Tahir Mamman (2023–24); Tunji Alausa (2024– )

Sources · Federal Gazette 2023– · CBN · NBS

The Republic — Weekly

One article a week. Stories, consorts, records, heroes — on a four-week rotation.

Methodology

Tier 1 · primary

Courts. Gazettes. National archives.

Tier 2 · corroborating

OCCRP. HRW. BudgIT. TheCable.

Tier 4 · tertiary, flagged

Wikipedia only where primary is pending. Always labelled.