Triggered by the 2014–2016 oil-price collapse and the depletion of the Excess Crude Account during the late Jonathan years, Nigeria entered recession in Q2 2016 — five consecutive quarters of contraction, the worst macroeconomic episode since 1991.
Key datapoints: Brent crude from $112/bbl (June 2014) to $27.88/bbl (20 January 2016); foreign reserves from $43bn (June 2014) to $23bn (October 2016); inflation from 9% (January 2016) to 18.7% (January 2017); naira at the official window from N197/$ to N305/$ after the June 2016 partial devaluation, and on the parallel market from N220/$ to over N500/$.
Policy response: the National Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (April 2017); the Investors and Exporters (I&E) FX window launched 24 April 2017; the federal government's first Eurobond issuance under Buhari (February 2017, $1.5bn at 7.875%). The recession formally ended in Q2 2017 (GDP growth of 0.55%). It deeply scarred middle-class purchasing power and middle-class confidence in technocratic management — a precondition for the 2017–2019 'japa' wave of emigration.
Figure 1
Real GDP growth, 2010–2024 (% year-on-year)
Two recessions in five years (2016, 2020) ended a decade of 6–8% growth. Post-recovery growth has never matched the pre-2014 trend.