{
  "version": "v1",
  "attribution": {
    "archive": "The Republic",
    "url": "https://therepublic.extrafemi.com",
    "terms": "https://therepublic.extrafemi.com/methodology",
    "note": "Every value carries its own source and as-of date. Reuse must keep both, and must credit the underlying publisher named on the point as well as The Republic."
  },
  "collection": {
    "id": "violence.patterns",
    "title": "The recurring patterns of violence",
    "description": "The seven sequences that Nigerian mass violence has repeated since 1945, each with a severity reading and the stages it moves through.",
    "page": "https://therepublic.extrafemi.com/protests",
    "provenance": "Editorial synthesis of the archive's own protest, massacre and inquiry registers; each pattern is evidenced by the entries tagged to it.",
    "asOf": "2026-08-01",
    "count": 7,
    "cut": "default",
    "items": [
      {
        "id": "impunity-loop",
        "title": "Impunity Loop",
        "year": 1929,
        "category": "Active",
        "summary": "State Shoots Protesters > Commission Whitewashes > Zero Prosecutions > Repeat",
        "detail": "Nigeria has never prosecuted a security officer for killing protesters or a perpetrator of a mass ethnic killing. Template unchanged since 1929: Aba (53 killed, no prosecution), Iva Valley (21 killed, no prosecution), Odi (900 killed, no prosecution), Lekki (9–56 killed, panel report suppressed, SARS renamed SWAT).",
        "href": "https://therepublic.extrafemi.com/protests#impunity-loop",
        "extra": {
          "severity": "Active",
          "sequence": "State Shoots Protesters > Commission Whitewashes > Zero Prosecutions > Repeat",
          "stages": [
            "State Shoots Protesters",
            "Commission Whitewashes",
            "Zero Prosecutions",
            "Repeat"
          ],
          "years": [
            "1929",
            "1949",
            "1966",
            "1993",
            "1999",
            "2020"
          ],
          "next": "~2035"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "economic-shock",
        "title": "Economic Shock Cycle",
        "year": 1945,
        "category": "Elevated",
        "summary": "Economic Shock > Youth Protest > State Crackdown > Cosmetic Reform > Repeat",
        "detail": "Every 7–9 years, an economic shock triggers mass protest. The state's response is invariant: deny, delay, shoot, rename the offending institution, make a theatrical concession, wait for the cycle to restart. 1945 (COLA), 1978 (Ali Must Go), 1989 (Anti-SAP), 1994 (Oil strike), 2012 (Occupy), 2024 (Hunger Protests). Next predicted: 2030–2033.",
        "href": "https://therepublic.extrafemi.com/protests#economic-shock",
        "extra": {
          "severity": "Elevated",
          "sequence": "Economic Shock > Youth Protest > State Crackdown > Cosmetic Reform > Repeat",
          "stages": [
            "Economic Shock",
            "Youth Protest",
            "State Crackdown",
            "Cosmetic Reform",
            "Repeat"
          ],
          "years": [
            "1945",
            "1978",
            "1989",
            "1994",
            "2012",
            "2020",
            "2024"
          ],
          "next": "~2031"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "grievance-insurgency",
        "title": "Grievance-to-Insurgency Pipeline",
        "year": 1990,
        "category": "Elevated",
        "summary": "Peaceful Protest > State Violence > Radicalisation > Armed Insurgency > Amnesty Without Reform > Repeat",
        "detail": "Ogoni (peaceful) > Saro-Wiwa executed > MEND (armed) > 2009 amnesty > Unknown Gunmen. Boko Haram: political group > Yusuf killed in custody > insurgency. The state creates insurgencies by refusing dialogue and killing leaders. Amnesty without reform produces the next armed group.",
        "href": "https://therepublic.extrafemi.com/protests#grievance-insurgency",
        "extra": {
          "severity": "Elevated",
          "sequence": "Peaceful Protest > State Violence > Radicalisation > Armed Insurgency > Amnesty Without Reform > Repeat",
          "stages": [
            "Peaceful Protest",
            "State Violence",
            "Radicalisation",
            "Armed Insurgency",
            "Amnesty Without Reform",
            "Repeat"
          ],
          "years": [
            "1990",
            "1995",
            "2005",
            "2009",
            "2012",
            "2021"
          ],
          "next": "~2030"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "unprosecuted-massacre",
        "title": "Unprosecuted Massacre Cycle",
        "year": 1929,
        "category": "High",
        "summary": "Ethnic Massacre > Zero Accountability > Larger Massacre > Potential War",
        "detail": "Every major massacre that goes unprosecuted produces a larger one. The 1966 pogroms (30,000 dead, no accountability) produced the Biafra war (2M dead). Jos: each unprosecuted episode authorised the next. Southern Kaduna: same pattern. Nigeria has never successfully prosecuted a single perpetrator of a mass ethnic killing in 60+ years.",
        "href": "https://therepublic.extrafemi.com/protests#unprosecuted-massacre",
        "extra": {
          "severity": "High",
          "sequence": "Ethnic Massacre > Zero Accountability > Larger Massacre > Potential War",
          "stages": [
            "Ethnic Massacre",
            "Zero Accountability",
            "Larger Massacre",
            "Potential War"
          ],
          "years": [
            "1929",
            "1966",
            "2000",
            "2001",
            "2004",
            "2015"
          ],
          "next": "~2028"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "election-crisis",
        "title": "Election Crisis Pattern",
        "year": 1964,
        "category": "Imminent",
        "summary": "Election > Rigging/Annulment > Violence > Impunity > Next Election Repeats",
        "detail": "No Nigerian election since independence has been universally accepted as free and fair. Every cycle: 1983 (rigging > coup), 1993 (annulment > June 12), 2007 (most violent election), 2011 (post-election riots, 800+ killed in north), 2023 (Lagos violence, naira as suppression tool). 2027 is high-risk.",
        "href": "https://therepublic.extrafemi.com/protests#election-crisis",
        "extra": {
          "severity": "Imminent",
          "sequence": "Election > Rigging/Annulment > Violence > Impunity > Next Election Repeats",
          "stages": [
            "Election",
            "Rigging/Annulment",
            "Violence",
            "Impunity",
            "Next Election Repeats"
          ],
          "years": [
            "1964",
            "1983",
            "1993",
            "2007",
            "2011",
            "2023"
          ],
          "next": "~2027"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "climate-conflict",
        "title": "Climate-Conflict Escalator",
        "year": 2001,
        "category": "Imminent",
        "summary": "Climate Pressure + Land Scarcity > Farmer-Herder > Ethnic Framing > National Spread > Uncontrollable",
        "detail": "Farmer-herder conflict was a manageable pastoral dispute in 2001. Climate change drove northern desertification. No land use reform in 60 years. Conflict spread to all 36 states. Religious framing accelerated it. Will intensify with climate change regardless of governance.",
        "href": "https://therepublic.extrafemi.com/protests#climate-conflict",
        "extra": {
          "severity": "Imminent",
          "sequence": "Climate Pressure + Land Scarcity > Farmer-Herder > Ethnic Framing > National Spread > Uncontrollable",
          "stages": [
            "Climate Pressure + Land Scarcity",
            "Farmer-Herder",
            "Ethnic Framing",
            "National Spread",
            "Uncontrollable"
          ],
          "years": [
            "2001",
            "2010",
            "2015",
            "2016",
            "2018",
            "2020",
            "2024"
          ],
          "next": "~2027"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "northern-abandonment",
        "title": "Northern Abandonment Cycle",
        "year": 2002,
        "category": "Overdue",
        "summary": "Poverty + State Absence + Arms > Radicalisation > Insurgency > Military-Only Response > Repeat",
        "detail": "North-east (Boko Haram) and north-west (banditry) follow identical formulas: 80–90% poverty, illiteracy, no state presence, no economic opportunity, post-Libya arms flood > armed group fills the vacuum. Government response is purely military. No economic investment. Same communities produce the next generation of fighters.",
        "href": "https://therepublic.extrafemi.com/protests#northern-abandonment",
        "extra": {
          "severity": "Overdue",
          "sequence": "Poverty + State Absence + Arms > Radicalisation > Insurgency > Military-Only Response > Repeat",
          "stages": [
            "Poverty + State Absence + Arms",
            "Radicalisation",
            "Insurgency",
            "Military-Only Response",
            "Repeat"
          ],
          "years": [
            "2002",
            "2009",
            "2014",
            "2019",
            "2021",
            "2023"
          ],
          "next": "~2026"
        }
      }
    ],
    "links": {
      "self": "https://therepublic.extrafemi.com/api/public/data/v1/collections/violence.patterns",
      "catalogue": "https://therepublic.extrafemi.com/data",
      "archive": "https://therepublic.extrafemi.com/protests"
    }
  }
}